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Ten major listed airlines in Europe, comprising almost the
entire market value of the European aviation sector, were worth
just $15.7 billion on Tuesday, around 12 percent of the market
capitalisation of mobile phone giant Vodafone Group Plc Despite its considerable revenues and importance to the
world economy, analysts say the global industry is reputed to
have destroyed shareholder value throughout its history. Now,
after the attacks by hijacked passenger jets in the United
States last week, it is facing one of its toughest ever
challenges.
The attacks have frightened passengers away and are expected
to result in costly security measures that will diminish the
capacity of busy airport terminals.
As a result, the 10 major European carriers, including
Deutsche Lufthansa AG But even as equity in the sector almost fades away, history
suggests that investors will be back. For some reason, they just
find airlines irresistible.
"People like aeroplanes, particularly men," said ABN Amro
analyst Damien Horth. "They like the machines, which go fast.
It's a sexy industry."
Sexy but small, at least in terms of shareholder value.
DWINDLING CAPITALISATIONS
The most valuable European airline on Tuesday was Lufthansa.
At $3.8 billion, its worth is a little less than that of
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG The market capitalisation of British Airways, which is
financed largely by debt, rather than equity, was just $2.7
billion on Tuesday, less than the $3.1 billion of Irish
no-frills carrier Ryanair Plc Such national icons as Air France SA The fall in equity value over the past week was more than 40
percent in the case of Swissair Group Asian carriers have been similarly affected, and big falls
were also seen on Monday when U.S. carriers resumed trading.
The market capitalisation of the world's largest airline
company, American Airlines owner AMR Corp , fell 39
percent on Monday to a mere $2.7 billion.
BUYING OPPORTUNITY?
But while its market value may be modest, the industry's
revenues are huge -- $330 billion a year worldwide, according to
ABN Amro's Horth.
The problem is that, even before the attacks, most of these
businesses had demonstrated that they could not consistently
turn big revenues into big earnings. Operating margins for
airlines worldwide are traditionally about three percent -- when
things are going right.
A common reason given for slim margins is the enormous
number of competitors, since almost every country, however
small, insists on having at least one national airline.
Moreover, entrepreneurs often find little trouble in
starting up new airlines with leased aircraft, and perhaps less
trouble in finding willing investors.
Horth thought that if the crisis forced a round of
consolidation -- a big if, he admitted -- then the current
prices could be a buying opportunity.
"There is certainly a potential for value creation in
airlines," he said. "It's just that almost no one has ever done
it."
-- Additional reporting by Jeff Mason in Frankfurt.
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